It scans fixtures
It looks across available football matches and finds games with Over 1.5 goal prices.
Customer guide
The simple guide to using GoalsProof.
This page explains what the tool does, what the numbers mean, and how to read a fixture without pretending the model is magic.
01
Start with the lane
Most Likely, Market Supported, and Review First tell you how to read the shortlist before opening the detail.
02
Check the key pills
Pills highlight the main lane, genuine risk flags, timing, low coverage, and settled results. Confidence buckets sit in their own column.
03
Respect the caution label
A match can look likely but still need care if the market support, price band, or risk profile is weaker.
04
Track the proof
The calibration and backtest sections show whether the model is actually performing over time.
What the app is doing
GoalsProof is trying to answer one question.
Which football fixtures are most likely to have at least two goals, and are any of them priced better than they should be?
It studies the football
It checks recent goals, home and away form, league behaviour, head-to-head history, weather, heat conditions, and match context.
It compares the price
It asks whether the bookmaker price is better or worse than the model's fair price.
It keeps score
When results complete, the tool tracks whether selections landed and whether the model was overconfident or useful.
Shortlist lanes
Most Likely, Market Supported, Review First.
The strongest Over 1.5 candidates by goal profile. Start here when you want the fastest shortlist.
Strong candidates where the market and price profile look cleaner. These are the current focus for live shadow testing.
The model may still like the game, but something needs care: weak market support, a historically poor price band, risk flags, or missing context.
Terminology
The words, in normal English.
Over 1.5 goals
The match needs two or more total goals. A 1-1, 2-0, 3-2 all win. A 0-0 or 1-0 loses.
Confidence
The displayed chance of Over 1.5 goals landing after GoalsProof has checked the fixture profile and proof evidence.
Fair odds
A guide price based on the displayed confidence. It helps users understand whether the available price looks sensible.
Best price
The best available Over 1.5 price found from trusted football market data sources.
+EV
Positive expected value. The model thinks the offered price is better than the fair price. This does not mean guaranteed profit.
Edge
The gap between the available price and the model's fair price. Positive edge means the price is attractive according to the model.
Market support
A cleaner view of whether the wider market broadly agrees with the goal profile.
Opening odds
The earlier price available before the market has fully moved.
Closing odds
The price close to kickoff. This is often the hardest price to beat.
CLV
Closing Line Value. If we took 1.40 and the closing price became 1.30, we beat the close. That is a good long-term sign.
ROI
Return on investment. If you staked 1 unit on every pick, ROI shows the profit or loss percentage.
Calibration
A truth check. If the model says 80%, are those picks actually landing around 80% of the time? The dashboard now uses this evidence to adjust displayed confidence.
Bucket
A confidence group. Elite is the highest, then Strong, Medium, and Low.
League baseline
How often games in that league normally go Over 1.5. Some leagues are naturally more goal-heavy than others.
Home/away split
How the home team performs at home and the away team performs away, rather than just their overall record.
H2H
Head-to-head. Previous meetings between the two teams. Useful, but often a small sample.
Cagey context
Games like playoffs, finals, first legs, or knockout ties can be more cautious, so the model flags them.
Feature guide
What each part of the dashboard is for.
Most Likely
The highest-confidence fixtures for today. Use this for a fast Over 1.5 shortlist.
Market Supported
Shows strong candidates where the market profile is cleaner. This is not a guarantee; it is a better area to investigate.
Confidence Buckets
Groups selections by confidence so you can see whether Elite, Strong, Medium, and Low picks are behaving as expected.
Calibration Dashboard
Compares predicted confidence with actual results. This stops the model from sounding clever without proving itself.
Backtest Proof
Replays historical fixtures using only data that would have been known before the match. This is the evidence layer.
Watchlist
A place to save fixtures you want to keep an eye on before deciding whether to use them.
Accumulator Builder
Groups games together and shows combined chance, fair odds, market odds, edge, league diversity, and correlation warnings.
Score Breakdown Drawer
Opens the model inputs behind a fixture, so you can see what pushed the confidence up or down.
Shareable Report
Creates a clean daily report for top rated picks, risks, and accumulator groups.
Useful guides
Learn the core ideas behind the dashboard.
What is Over 1.5 goals?
A simple guide to the market, what counts as a successful outcome, and the data worth checking.
How to find value in football odds
Understand fair odds, implied probability, price edge, and why likely does not always mean value.
How to track model performance
Learn why backtesting, locked selections, calibration, and meaningful sample sizes matter.
How to use it sensibly
A simple customer workflow.
- Start with Most Likely. These are the strongest goal candidates.
- Check Market Supported. These have a cleaner market profile.
- Read Review First carefully. These may still be interesting, but the profile is less clean.
- Check risk pills. Weather Risk, Cagey Context, Context Watch, and Low Coverage deserve caution.
- Keep accas small. Grouping games multiplies risk. Use the accumulator warnings.
- Review calibration weekly. Trust the parts of the model that are proving themselves.
Responsible use
Important: this is not a guarantee.
GoalsProof is a decision-support tool, not betting advice. It helps find likely and potentially mispriced Over 1.5 games, but football is noisy and every selection can lose.
- 18+ only. Only use betting products where it is legal.
- Only stake money you can afford to lose.
- Do not chase losses or treat confidence as certainty.
- Judge the model over tracked results and meaningful samples, not one good or bad day.
- GoalsProof does not place bets, handle stakes, or guarantee returns. For support, visit BeGambleAware.org or GamCare.org.uk.
Questions about GoalsProof? Email support@goalsproof.com.
Open the dashboard