Public selections are timestamped before matches start, so the record cannot be rewritten after the result is known.
Public proof record
Every public pick is locked before kickoff. Results stay visible.
This is the GoalsProof accountability layer: model-selected Over 1.5 picks are recorded before games start, settled after full time, and judged over rolling performance windows.
Loading public proof record.
90 active-pick proof days
CalculatingRate pending
Only days with market-backed public picks count toward the 90-day proof build. No-pick days stay visible but do not advance the counter.
The differentiator
No cherry-picked screenshots. No deleted losing runs.
The public proof page is designed to answer the question every user should ask: does the model hold up when every pick is recorded before kickoff and left visible afterwards?
See the full public historyWins, losses, pending results and profit/loss all remain on the public page.
Hit rate, profit/loss and longer-term performance are tracked across rolling windows.
How to read this page
Four simple labels matter.
The pick was saved before kickoff.
The match finished with 2 or more total goals.
The match finished with 0 or 1 total goals.
The profit/loss if every public pick was followed equally.
Today’s public snapshot
Today’s public proof status.
Loading today’s public shortlist.
Aussie Lower League Lab
Tracked separately while the evidence builds.
Loading Aussie lower-league lab record.
Rolling record
Performance tracked over time
Official public selections are model-selected, not personalised. User proof logs stay private; this page tracks the same GoalsProof public picks for everyone.
Weekly proof summary
This week’s public record, in plain view.
Loading the latest weekly proof summary.
Performance context
Is the record beating the price?
A high landed rate only matters if it beats the breakeven rate implied by the locked odds.
What does this mean?
- Landed rate is how often the public picks finished with 2 or more goals.
- Average locked odds is the average price recorded when the pick was saved before kickoff.
- Breakeven needed is the hit rate those odds require just to break even.
- Vs breakeven shows whether the record is ahead or behind that price benchmark.
- Level-stake return shows the result if every public pick was followed equally.
The key number is Vs breakeven. Positive means the proof record is beating the average price; negative means the hit rate is not yet high enough for the odds being taken.
Suggested Acca Proof
Grouped picks tracked separately
Loading suggested acca proof. These groups are built from the same public shortlist, with Value Build tracked separately as a higher-variance beta group.
Recent suggested groups
Locked before results, settled after matches finish.
Full record
Past public selection history
Showing past official GoalsProof public selections only. Today’s live shortlist is kept as a small snapshot above.
| Date | Fixture | Competition | Source | Confidence | Price | Context | Result | P/L |
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No public proof records found yet.
Advanced model checks Open selection rules and diagnostics
Selection rule
How public picks are chosen
Every public pick is selected by a fixed rule before kickoff. The rule is shown here so results cannot be cherry-picked after matches finish.
Rule update
From 24 May 2026, public proof uses context gating. Playoff, relegation and knockout-style fixtures must clear a higher confidence and price-quality bar before being locked into the public record.
From Monday 25 May 2026, medium-context fixtures are held to a stricter selection bar. Today’s record remains visible as the model stood on the day.
From Monday 1 June 2026, Australian lower-league model-only candidates are excluded from the main public proof record and tracked in the separate Aussie Lower League Lab until enough evidence has built.
The strongest Over 1.5 candidates by model confidence, with enough bookmaker coverage and stricter context gating for playoff, relegation or knockout-style fixtures.
Strong candidates where the market and price profile look cleaner. Medium-context fixtures now need stronger model, market, and risk support.
Accountability
Simple proof summary
ROI is calculated to flat 1-unit stakes using the recorded Over 1.5 price where available.
Market proof
Did the price move in our favour?
This compares the price recorded when GoalsProof locked a pick against the later market price. If the locked price was better, that is a positive sign over time.
Shortlist lanes
Most Likely vs Market Supported
The two public lanes answer different questions: do the strongest model picks land, and do cleaner market-supported picks hold up over time?
Calibration
Do higher-rated picks perform better?
Bucket performance shows whether stronger model confidence has actually converted into better realised outcomes.
Context performance
Do high-risk fixtures underperform?
This tracks whether playoff, relegation, knockout and unusual-context fixtures actually land less often than standard public picks.
Context gate evidence
Excluded does not mean ignored.
Fixtures filtered out by the stricter public proof context gate are still tracked in shadow mode, so we can prove whether excluding them improves the public record.
Heat weather evidence
Does heat slow games down?
Hot-weather fixtures are tracked in shadow mode so GoalsProof can test whether heat watch and heat risk labels actually reduce Over 1.5 performance.
How picks are recorded
How the audit trail is created
The public record is built from repeatable stages: shortlist lock before kickoff, closing price snapshot, and result sweeps after matches complete.
Candidate rule test
Robust value rule under test
This rule runs beside the public shortlist without changing official customer-facing picks. It tests whether the stricter backtested rule can beat the current public record over 30 live days.
Responsible context.
This is a public performance record, not a promise of future results. Football remains uncertain, and even high-confidence selections can lose. The purpose is to make the process accountable over time.
GoalsProof is decision support only. It does not place bets, handle stakes, guarantee returns, or provide personal financial advice.