85.4% settled historical public Over 1.5 picks.
Public proof record
Every public pick is locked before kickoff. Results stay visible.
This is the GoalsProof accountability layer for the main priced Over 1.5 model: market-backed picks are recorded before games start, settled after full time, and judged over rolling performance windows.
Loading public proof record.
90 active-pick proof days
CalculatingRate pending
Only days with market-backed main-model public picks count toward the 90-day proof build. No-pick days stay visible but do not advance the counter.
Historical proof snapshot
Past results are public. Same-day picks stay inside the beta.
This static summary is included for search engines and AI answer systems. It excludes in-day selections and does not publish today's full board.
Recorded before kickoff and judged after full time.
Experimental market tracked separately from the main proof record.
Both Teams To Score evidence is still being tested.
Main priced O1.5 record
Rolling proof performance
Official public selections are model-selected, not personalised. User proof logs stay private; this page tracks the same GoalsProof public picks for everyone.
This is the trust anchor: public picks with bookmaker price evidence, locked before kickoff and settled transparently.
The same public shortlist is grouped into Clean 3, Balanced 4 and Higher-risk 5 proof streams, measured separately from single picks.
Aussie, O2.5, BTTS, context and weather tests are tracked below the line and do not change the public proof headline.
The differentiator
No cherry-picked screenshots. No deleted losing runs.
The public proof page is designed to answer the question every user should ask: does the main priced Over 1.5 model hold up when every pick is recorded before kickoff and left visible afterwards? Suggested accas then show how those same picks perform when grouped.
See the full public historyPublic selections are timestamped before matches start, so the record cannot be rewritten after the result is known.
Wins, losses, pending results and profit/loss all remain on the public page.
Hit rate, profit/loss and longer-term performance are tracked across rolling windows.
How to read this page
Four simple labels matter.
The pick was saved before kickoff.
The match finished with 2 or more total goals.
The match finished with 0 or 1 total goals.
The profit/loss if every public pick was followed equally.
Today’s public snapshot
Today’s public proof status.
Loading today’s main priced public shortlist.
Recent proof summary
The latest settled proof record, in plain view.
Loading the latest settled proof summary.
Performance context
Is the record beating the price?
A high landed rate only matters if it beats the breakeven rate implied by the locked odds.
What does this mean?
- Landed rate is how often the public picks finished with 2 or more goals.
- Average locked odds is the average price recorded when the pick was saved before kickoff.
- Breakeven needed is the hit rate those odds require just to break even.
- Vs breakeven shows whether the record is ahead or behind that price benchmark.
- Short prices are sensitive to rounding, so this panel uses the precise average locked odds for the breakeven check.
- Level-stake return shows the result if every public pick was followed equally.
The key number is Vs breakeven. Positive means the proof record is beating the average price; negative means the hit rate is not yet high enough for the odds being taken.
O1.5 public record
Main priced proof history
Showing official main-model Over 1.5 public selections only. Today’s live shortlist is kept as a small snapshot above.
Filter the public record
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| Date | Fixture | Competition | Source | Confidence | Price | Context | Result | P/L |
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Suggested acca record
Where the shortlist turns into groups.
Loading suggested acca proof. These groups are built from the same public shortlist and judged separately, so the single-pick proof record stays clean.
Recent suggested groups
Locked before results, settled after matches finish.
Experimental evidence below this point
What is proven versus what is still being tested.
The headline record above is the main priced O1.5 public proof. Suggested accas are tracked separately from those same public locks. Below this point, Aussie O2.5, worldwide O2.5 and BTTS are lab streams only.
Separate lab evidence
Aussie O2.5 Lab
Loading Aussie O2.5 lab record.
Why this is separate
The Aussie lower-league data looks more useful for O2.5 than O1.5, but most selections still have no bookmaker O2.5 price attached. It is tracked honestly here, but it does not count toward the main priced O1.5 public proof headline.
Worldwide O2.5 / BTTS Lab
Experimental worldwide markets tracked separately
Loading worldwide Over 2.5 and BTTS shadow evidence.
Why this is below the main record
These are worldwide priced-league research streams for possible future markets. They do not count towards the main priced O1.5 public proof headline.
Advanced model checks Open selection rules and diagnostics
Selection rule
How public picks are chosen
Every public pick is selected by a fixed rule before kickoff. The rule is shown here so results cannot be cherry-picked after matches finish.
The strongest Over 1.5 candidates by model confidence, with enough bookmaker coverage and no major weather or match-context risk.
Strong candidates where the model, market and price profile all support the fixture being added to the public record.
Accountability
Simple proof summary
ROI is calculated to flat 1-unit stakes using the recorded Over 1.5 price where available.
Market proof
Did the price move in our favour?
This compares the price recorded when GoalsProof locked a pick against the later market price. If the locked price was better, that is a positive sign over time.
Shortlist lanes
Most Likely vs Market Supported
The two public lanes answer different questions: do the strongest model picks land, and do cleaner market-supported picks hold up over time?
Calibration
Do higher-rated picks perform better?
Bucket performance shows whether stronger model confidence has actually converted into better realised outcomes.
Context performance
Do high-risk fixtures underperform?
This tracks whether playoff, relegation, knockout and unusual-context fixtures actually land less often than standard public picks.
Context gate evidence
Excluded does not mean ignored.
Fixtures filtered out by the stricter public proof context gate are still tracked in shadow mode, so we can prove whether excluding them improves the public record.
Heat weather evidence
Does heat slow games down?
Hot-weather fixtures are tracked in shadow mode so GoalsProof can test whether heat watch and heat risk labels actually reduce Over 1.5 performance.
How picks are recorded
How the audit trail is created
The public record is built from repeatable stages: shortlist lock before kickoff, closing price snapshot, and result sweeps after matches complete.
Candidate rule test
Robust value rule under test
This rule runs beside the public shortlist without changing official customer-facing picks. It tests whether the stricter backtested rule can beat the current public record over 30 live days.
Responsible context.
This is a public performance record, not a promise of future results. Football remains uncertain, and even high-confidence selections can lose. The purpose is to make the process accountable over time.
GoalsProof is decision support only. It does not place bets, handle stakes, guarantee returns, or provide personal financial advice.